The Unsponsored Gambling Corner

We are into the home stretch of the 2021 football betting season. We’ve seen the board, we’ve endured the injuries and we’ve yelled things at Florida State +9.5 that we can never take back. Now, I am seeing the board the board clearer than ever. I feel akin to Bradley Cooper in Limitless if his only limitation was just sports gambling. After a 2-3 week (which let me remind you is .400, so I’m essentially Ted Williams), I am geared up with five picks with a 5-0 week in store.

UNC/Pittsburgh O73.5

Thursday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN

This matchup pins the No. 1 scoring offense in the country in Pitt (45.0 ppg) against the No. 11 scoring offense in North Carolina (38.9). While Pittsburgh gives up a respectable 22.7 ppg, UNC has the second-worst scoring defense in the ACC allowing 33.4 per game. Lets also not forget this game features two of the more dynamic quarterbacks in college football in Pitt’s Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell of the Tar Heels. What does this add up to? Points.

The Panthers are 7-2 this season hitting the over, surpassing the total by an average of 11.0 ppg. On the other side, UNC is 6-3 on overs this year, beating the number by 5.3 points on average. The Tar Heels’ last three games have featured totals of 87, 78 and 113, the latter seeing the over hit midway through the third quarter. I like Pittsburgh to cover at home, but not as much as I love this over hitting. It’s Veteran’s Day and few things are more American than a shitton of points.

UVA +5.5 vs. Notre Dame

Saturday at 7:30 p.m. on NBC

The Hoos (6-3, 4-2) are firmly in the ACC Coastal thanks in large part to dynamic signal-caller Brennan Armstrong. Not only does he sport an all-time great surname for a QB (his arm is literally very strong), but he’s accounted for over 3,500 yards and 27 touchdowns through the air, with seven more scores on the ground.

Charlottesville has been a tough place for opposing teams this year as the Cavaliers are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home in 2021. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has played just two road games all season: a three-point win at Florida State and a three-point win at Virginia Tech, a pair of teams with a combined 7-11 (tremendous Slurpies) record. With no one having true road atmospheres to deal with last year due to the pandemic, many road teams are struggling to cover this year. I want the team with the better quarterback, the one playing at home and the side getting 5.5 points.

Tennessee +20.5 vs. UGA

Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on CBS

Remember what I said about road teams? Well, the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs have also played just two road contests all season, and one of those was at Vanderbilt. Calling that a road game is like calling yourself a photographer because you took a picture of your BFF in front of Nashville’s angel wings. The Dawgs are rolling, and have not won a game by less than three scores since the opener against Clemson.

Tennessee, meanwhile, is just 5-4 SU but they’re coming off a win at then-No. 18 Kentucky. The Vols are one of the better teams in the country at scoring early, including taking a 14-7 lead into the second quarter in Tuscaloosa two weeks ago. Can Josh Heupel draw up a script for Hendon Hooker to put some points up early on the stout (I feel like stout isn’t a strong enough word; maybe Four Loko, instead) defense of Georgia?

The crowd at Neyland will be rocking, and potentially unhinged yet again. I have zero doubt UGA will win this game, but will they continue to roll like they have been without a true test, and do it on the road? I don’t know, so give me the Vols and a ton of points and allow me to look stupid on Sunday.

Titans -3 vs. Saints

Sunday at 1:00 p.m. on CBS

We keep the Volunteer State love cruising here. Tennessee is one of the better teams in the NFL ATS in 2021. They’re 7-2 altogether and 3-1 at home. Losing Derrick Henry was a monster blow, but they still have Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown and Julio Jones among others. Not to mention, their defense has really come on as of late with a strong front seven.

So do I trust the home team needing just a field goal, who happen to be one of the best teams in the NFL? Or do I trust Trevor Siemian and whoever in God’s name is going out trying to catch passes from him? I think I’ll roll with Tennessee here.

WHAMMY Multi-Unit: Packers -3 vs. Seahawks

Speaking of underrated defenses with a strong front seven, we go to Green Bay. The Packers have some susceptibility in their secondary but have a strong core up front and are a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season. Not to mention, the projected return of QAron Rodgers off the Covid list and Lambeau should be humming for this one.

I know Seattle is expected to get back Russell Wilson for this game after suffering a finger injury and in turn forcing us to suffer through whatever the hell his comeback video was supposed to be. That offense was anemic under Geno Smith, but it was still out of sorts with Wilson back there pre-injury. They’re a boom-or-bust offense who rely on deep balls to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to get them out of jams. I’m not going to bet against the Pack when I have Rodgers, Lambeau and Wilson coming off an injury. Back the Pack, big.

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