Rivalry season is among us. That means calling Oregon-Oregon State “The Civil War” even though they’ve asked us not to. It also means Florida-Florida State with a bowl game on the line. Lastly, it means betting chaos as pregame speeches about “you played high school against some of these guys” and whatnot flood the air and records are thrown out the window, as Dan Fouts so eloquently spoke of in a cinema classic.
Sunday at 1:00 on FOX
Starting it off with an under in a game between two teams almost certainly out of the playoff picture. It makes you sick, but it’ll also make you money. Both teams are 7-4 on the season at hitting the under with seven of Carolina’s 11 games totaling less than 42 points.
Miami still has two offensive coordinators which if you follow the old adage about quarterbacks means you really have none. Neither of them trust Too Tagovailoa, probably due in part to the fact his offensive line appears to have a hit out on him. Carolina, meanwhile, has the excitement of Cam Newton back in the fold. Yes, that means the Superman celebration and the hats at the postgame, but it also means erratic passing. Mother of God there are going to be some punts in this game. But you’ll be ready for them, because you read this blog.
Oklahoma/Oklahoma State U50.5
Saturday at 7:30 on ABC
“Another under? Why do you hate us, SJB?” Listen, picking the over is like eating chocolate cake for breakfast. Picking the under is like eating quinoa for breakfast. You absolutely hate it and it’s disgusting, but deep down, you know it’s good for you occasionally.
This isn’t typically the game for unders, especially considering during Oklahoma’s six-game win streak in the series, they’re averaging more than 46 points per game. Twice in that stretch, the total has gone over 100 with another total surpassing 80. This isn’t like most years, however.
The Cowboys are No. 7 in the country per the AP Poll, due in large part to a defense that is second in the nation in scoring defense at just 14.91 points per game allowed. They aren’t the typical high-octane Mike Gundy offense, either, due in large part to the fact they don’t have to be. That said, so far, they’ve gone over 32 points of offense just twice this season.
Oklahoma isn’t shabby on defense, either, allowing less than 20 points per game across their last four contests. Their offense, seemingly clicking after switching quarterbacks, has sputtered in recent weeks, scoring a total of 42 points against Baylor and Iowa State. This feels unnatural, but it’s screaming “under” at Bedlam.
Pittsburgh -13 vs Syracuse
Saturday at 7:30 on ACCN
I feel like I should be at this game. If you listen to our podcast, you know I am a card-carrying member of the Kenny Pickett fan club. I should be at in Western New York, devouring some red sauce at Pastabilities and throwing roses at Pickett’s feet.
Syracuse was playing some inspired football, losing to Clemson and Wake Forest by field goals in both games before beating Virginia Tech and Boston College. Then, they hit a wall and got gobsmacked by Louisville 41-3 then NC State 41-17 a week ago.
Pittsburgh has won seven of eight, powered in large part by the third-best scoring offense in America behind only Ohio State and Alabama. The Panthers are 8-3 against the spread and the Orange won’t be able to keep up. Panthers, huge.
Purdue -16 vs Indiana
Saturday at 3:30 on FS1
What in God’s name happened to Indiana. They were top 10 last year, duking it out with the Buckeyes, Tom Allen on top of the world and now they’re 2-9 and 0-8 in the conference. Not only are the Hoosiers winless in the conference, but they’ve been outscored by 190 points in those eight games. There are certainly a lot of angry and pasty fans in Bloomington these days.
Purdue, on the other hand, is in the midst of a damn fine year. They have wins over Iowa and Michigan State, and all their losses are to good teams (and Minnesota). Even in their loss at Ohio State, they put up 31 on the Buckeyes. Expect a plus effort from the offense against a truly hapless Hoosier team in a big win. Bang that bigass dum for the Boilermakers.
WHAMMY Multi-unit: Boise State/San Diego State U44.5
Friday at Noon on CBS
I have had to double, triple, quadruple check this game. It’s in San Diego…at noon…Eastern Time? We’ve got breakfast football, baby. This feels like stealing. I may honestly give the winnings back after this game. You’re asking college kids to wake up before the sun rises and then go play a competitive football game.
Not only that, but this game features the Nos. 11 and 10 best scoring defenses in the nation, respectively, both allowing under 19 points per game. The unders are also 8-2-1 in Boise games so far this year. San Diego State features the greatest punter since at least the dinosaurs roamed this Earth and probably beyond, and he’s gotten a ton of practice considering the Aztecs have scored just over 21 points per game in their last six contests.
Four of Boise’s last six games have seen them score less than 30 points, and that’s without facing a defense quite like SDSU’s. I can have a 27-17 game and still hit this under? I feel bad. I really do. Some poor bookmaker from Birmingham may lose his ass over this one. You won’t, though. Make that money.