Being a successful gambler is all about identifying trends and patterns. Well how is this for a pattern: back-to-back 4-1 weeks with two of those wins being Whammies, bringing my multi-unit whammy picks to a robust 11-2 in 2020. Not only that, but I also went 3-1 in the bonus college picks I gave on here. If I was any hotter, I would be 20 years old living in a mansion in Reseda shooting TikToks of me thrusting to Megan Thee Stallion tracks.
This is the last Gamblin’ Dans before Christmas, and as I always say, our goal here is to make sure your bookie’s kids don’t go to college. That goes for them enjoying Christmas, too. I want your bookie’s kids’ lives to reflect the first 20 minutes of an E! True Hollywood Story. I am locked and loaded with five picks, but will preface it with five additional picks. That’s a lot of walking around cash you’re about to happen into. Spend it on Toys for Tots, jewelry for a special someone, or a bathtub full of Fireball to bob for apples in. I don’t give a shit, just don’t miss this opportunity to make a little extra dough. Speaking of dough, let’s get to baking with our extra picks.
- Iowa State +5.5 vs Oklahoma – Matt Cambell has won two of the last four meetings between these two, including earlier this year. He always plays Lincoln Riley well and the Cyclones are humming at exactly the right time, having won five in a year, winning three of those by at least 30 points. I think the Clones win this game, but even if they don’t, the cover is there.
- Ohio State -20.5 vs Northwestern – The Wildcats are a great underdog story of the scrappy smaller kids who will one day all own three homes and a boat before they’re 40. They won at Iowa and beat the Badgers at home, but Ohio State is a different animal. Ohio State needs to blow folks out to show they belong in the playoff and I think they’ll do exactly that.
- Air Force-Army U37.5 – This is an apple-bottom jeans low line. These two teams fit the billing, though. In three of their five games this year, the Falcons have allowed a touchdown or less to their opponent. Army, meanwhile has held five of their 10 opponents to single digits. Both offenses run the ball a lot and with weather in the 20s in West Point on Saturday, expect more of the same. This one is screaming 15-9.
- Packers -8.5 vs Panthers – Every trend in this one screams Green Bay. The Packers are 6-4 against the spread as the favorite in 2020, they’re 4-2 ATS at home, and they’re an NFL-best 5-1 ATS when they have equal rest as their opponent. Take Aaron Rodgers here and don’t look back.
- Titans -11.5 vs Lions – You know the old saying, “lions, tigers, and bea- holy shit wait a second, what was that injury report with the Lions again?” Forget that quarterback Matthew Stafford has a rib injury and is likely to miss, but center Frank Ragnow has a “broken throat.” Tennessee is neck-and-neck (sorry, Frank) with Indianapolis for the division title, with the Ravens hot on the division loser’s trail in the Wild Card standings. Give me Derrick Henry and AJ Brown in a rout.
Alright, baby birds, not that I’ve fed you some morsels of dough, here’s the real deal below. I went 4-1 back-to-back weeks with Gamblin’ Dans picks, but now I’m shooting even higher. I have won everyone money 11 of 14 weeks, but have yet to see an elusive 5-0 week. It’s coming, and it’s here. Roll the picks.
Ole Miss -1 vs LSU
This line opened with LSU as a 2-point favorite at most books. The money has been flowing to the Rebels as they’ve won three-in-a-row and for once, are not the one playing that has the NCAA up their ass. Rebel quarterback Matt Corral is playing as well as anyone else in the country at the position and is up against Max Johnson, who will be making his second-ever start. I know the colloquially-known “Tigahs” just knocked off No. 6 Florida on the road, but something is still very wrong in that locker room. Give me the Rebels here.
Dolphins -2.5 vs Patriots
The Dolphins are one of the betting world’s darlings in 2020. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS coming off of a loss, which they did to Kansas City a week ago. They are 6-1 ATS as the home team, the best mark in the NFL. They are also 4-1 ATS as the favorite, trailing only the Bengals (1-0) in that category. Lastly, they are just the overall best team in the NFL at covering, at 10-3 on the year. So, that is this year’s perspective, but since Bill Belichick took over the Patriots, he is 9-11 straight-up in Miami. Give me the sea mammals here.
Chiefs -3 vs Saints
Patrick Mahomes is coming off arguably his worst game of the season at Miami, despite throwing for just shy of 400 yards. I don’t expect two bad games in a row for the potential NFL MVP. He will be tasked with going up against one of the best defenses in the league in New Orleans, but the Saints just had a serving of humble pie delivered to them last week against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. A now-human defense with a Taysom Hill-led offense against the Chiefs? Yeah, I’ll take the boys from BBQ-town in this one.
Alabama -17 vs Florida
Alabama is an absolute machine. I know, that is something that can be said for almost the entirety of the Nick Saban era, but this year they are 8-2 ATS and 3-0 ATS against ranked opponents. Mac Jones is automatic under center, though who wouldn’t be with Najee Harris, Alex Leatherwood, and Devonta Smith. Florida has a slew of athletes and an elite signal caller on their side, but the Alabama defense will be a bit tougher than they saw in College Station or last week against LSU. The Tide gives us an absolute snoozer on Saturday night.
WHAMMY: Dolphins-Patriots U41.5
This selection ruined Doc’s week. If you listen to the podcast, you can hear almost a literal sizzling coming from Doc’s voice that two of the five picks are from the same contest. Alas, this is about the five best picks and not the five best games. The Dolphins are second in the NFL in points per game allowed 18.8 while the Patriots are a respectable seventh at 21.5 points per game. You have two elite defensive minds in Belichick and Brian Flores doing battle against a rookie quarterback and a recently benched Cam Newton. Their first meeting saw just 31 combined points. This will be in the same ballpark. Under aren’t any fun, but money is, so hammer it here.