After a torrid start that saw me with winning weeks the first eight weeks of the year, yours truly hit a bit of a lull with back-to-back losing weeks. Then came a 3-2 week followed by a losing week only to rebound with a 4-1 week last weekend. In the immortal words of Randy Owen, you can’t see a good man down.
The hot streak of Whammies continued as I am 10-2 on the year with one cancellation, and this week features a litany of juicy lines. After Indiana -10 against Purdue came off the board by way of Covid, I now have just seven bonus lines. Without further ado, here’s a little extra gambling fairy dust for you:
- Arkansas +32.5 vs Alabama – Both teams are 7-2 ATS this season with the Razorbacks cooling off a bit. Still, Alabama just needs to win this game, stay healthy, and get to Atlanta for next week’s showdown with Florida. Meanwhile, Arkansas is in “moral victory” territory in Year 1 under Sam Pittman. This one won’t be close, but if I can get four touchdowns and a field goal with likely a second unit playing the entire second half, I’m taking it.
- Buffalo -32.5 vs Akron – Jaret Patterson is one of the best players in college football you may not have heard of before his EIGHT-touchdown performance the other week. The Bulls are 4-0 and have blown out their opponents thus far, and with the worst team in the conference coming to town, it won’t get much better. Bulls roll here.
- UNC/Miami O67.5 – D’Eriq King and the Hurricanes offense is clicking at the right time as they’ve surpassed over 40 points in two of the last three weeks. Meanwhile, UNC has amassed over 40 in five of the last six games. Both teams have left some to be desired on defense this season, and both have a lot to play for. This should be a shootout in the 40s. Points, baby.
- Army -6.5 vs Navy – This is going to be a low-scoring, grind-em-out kind of game. Navy has improved since getting walloped in the season’s debut game against BYU, but not enough to keep this closer. We just need a touchdown for the boys from West Point to cover and I don’t see us not getting there. Look for a 17-7 type of game and at the end of the day, we’ll get paid.
- Falcons -2.5 vs Chargers – Atlanta has played well as of late, inning three of their last five with both losses coming to the class of the NFC, the New Orleans Saints. The Chargers, meanwhile, are 3-9 with their lone wins coming over the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets. Woof. They also were blown out by New England 45-0 last week. I just need a Younghoe Koo field goal to cover here and I think we get it.
- Saints/Eagles U44 – Jalen Hurts getting his first start in the NFL against the Saints is like having your first date ever being with Robert California. Both of these defenses have been solid lately with New Orleans surrendering just three touchdowns in the last five weeks combined. The Eagles have been at or under 44 points in each of their last six games minus last week when they combined with Green Bay for 46. This stays under.
- Ravens -1 vs Browns – These are two teams going in very different directions at the moment. The Browns have won four in a row and are poised to return to the postseason while Baltimore has last three of their last four. Still, this was a 38-6 Ravens win in their meeting earlier this season, and that hump still seems to be one Baker Mayfield isn’t ready to get over just yet. Give me the Old Browns over the New Browns in a close one.
Now that you have the bonus picks that I feel confident enough to put my name to and slap on our site, here are the meaty ones that I am staking my record upon. Come for the crown, Vegas, daddy’s home.
Missouri +13 vs UGA
Larry Rountree and the Tigers have won five of their last six, winning ballgames in a multitude of ways. Last week, they won a shootout against Arkansas 50-48 as time expired, while they’ve also won a series of closer games, as well, putting their rebuild ahead of schedule. The Tigers are 4-1 at home against the spread this year, and it will be a cold wintery mix coming to Columbia this weekend.
Meanwhile, UGA is 1-3 ATS on the road and has not played their best football as of late. In their last contest, they did blow out South Carolina, but before that they beat a dilapidated Mississippi State team by a touchdown at home, lost by 16 to Florida, by 11 at Kentucky, and lost by 17 to Alabama. Missouri very likely does not win this one, but I think they keep it to single-digits.
Tennessee -15 vs Vanderbilt
Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt looks like he’s done in Knoxville. Harrison Bailey’s performance last week was a welcome sign for the kid to Vols fans, but befuddled the faithful as to why Pruitt has not turned to him earlier. Still, while a storm is brewing in Knoxville, it’s flat-out monsoon season in Nashville where over a dozen Commodores reportedly refused to board the team plane to Athens last week.
It is an absolute mess at Vandy where Derek Mason is gone, the team has quit, and everyone just wants to get through to the banquet. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game isn’t played, but if it is, look for a Vol rout.
Auburn -6.5 vs Mississippi State
Bo Nix and the Tigers were every bit in that game last week against No. 5 Texas A&M. While they may not have the horses the Aggies do, they are still a much better team than what is being held in Starkville. The Bulldogs are 2-6 this year with all six losses coming by more than 6.5 points. Mississippi State has yet to cover at home this season, going 0-3 in Starkville, and they are down to a skeleton crew. Give me Auburn by the nose of a touchdown.
Colts -2.5 vs Raiders
The Colts just find ways to win football games, a narrative that’s shown its teeth in recent weeks in a tough 26-20 win over the Texans last week and a 34-31 overtime win over Green Bay before Thanksgiving. They are 7-5 ATS this season, and 4-2 ATS on the road. They boast Philip Rivers, who has already surpassed 3,000 yards this year as well as a stable of running backs and one of the league’s more-respected defenses.
Then we go to the Raiders who are sputtering at just the wrong time. It took them a miracle to beat the Jets a week after losing 43-6 in Atlanta. Las Vegas is quickly playing itself out of playoff hopes, and with Indianapolis coming to town, it’s do-or-die time. Give me Rodrido Blankenship, who you cannot and will not convince me isn’t in Witness Protection, and I will take the young horses by 2.5.
WHAMMY: Cardinals/Giants U45
When you think of the Cardinals, you probably think of Kyler Murray, Cliff Kingsbury, DeAndre Hopkins, and that offense. What you may not know is that they are 4-8 on over/unders this season, the second-best mark in the NFL. Who is the best? That would be the New York football Giants at 3-9. Ten of the 12 games the Giants have played this season have stayed at or under 45 points. The weather has turned and this one will be played at The Meadowlands. Give me these two and an under any day. Look for the Whammy streak to continue on.