All is right with the world again as I went back to my winning ways with a 3-2 week and another whammy hit (8-2 if you’re keeping score at home). Following seven consecutive winning weeks to start the year, I had two losing weeks that felt like watching Gabe Lewis’s Cinema of the Unsettling. But like AC/DC and unlike Texas football, I’m back, baby.
As far as bonus picks are concerned, I was a lightning rod at 5-2 in this blog (the Dolphins came in to replace the cancelled CCU-Troy game ON my regular sheet). This week, I am going to throw some out for you good people rapid fire:
- Atlanta Falcons +4 at New Orleans Saints. This is as sucker bet as a sucker bet can be. Drew Brees is almost certainly out, leaving Jameis Winston to fend off the Falcons, who are on a winning streak. This is a field goal game.
- Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 vs. New York Jets. The Jets are awful. You didn’t need me to tell you that. It’s like trying to say Tyrese needs acting lessons. We all know that. Justin Herbert blows them out here.
- Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers O47. The Lions have only gone under 47 in a game once this year, and the Panthers have done it six out of 10 times. Hell, the Bucs almost did it on their own last week, scoring 46 against Carolina. God, I love this pick. Points for the cats mascots.
- Oklahoma and Oklahoma State O59. This line could be 99.5 and I’ll take the over. It’s Bedlam, baby. You think we’re going to see a battle of the defensive minds? You’re better than that. Give me a 31-30 game and the over.
- Boise State -14 at Hawaii. The Broncos’ lone loss this year was to a unit of a BYU team. Boise can score in a multitude of ways and while that’s a long flight out to the islands, they’ll make it worth it. This is your chase the dragon pick of the evening. Keep it in your hazy mind.
- Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns U47.5. It’s going to be raining, it’s going to be miserable, and it’s going to just be an awful-looking game. We saw two of the most prolific over-hitters this year in Las Vegas and Cleveland stumble out to a 16-6 dud earlier this month in poor conditions. Look for something similar here.
OK, there’s six extras for you folks. As I’m sitting here on a Friday morning, hammering away at my keyboard, funneling a Red Bull down my gullet, I am furious at myself for not putting that kitty cat over in my Gamblin’ Dans picks, but hey life is for the living. Let’s go.
Eagles +3.5 at Browns
Both of these teams are like a bad actress in a National Lampoon’s movie: they’re terrible at covering up. It’s going to be pouring down rain in the mid-40s around kickoff, and the Eagles are a close-game magnet this year. The Browns are fresh off of one of the most egregious non-covers we have seen in a long time, causing more broken TV’s than a Motley Crue hotel reservation. This will be close and the horrible-looking, bet on the Bird Gang.
Patriots -2 at Texans
You don’t have to be Doc to bet against the Houston Texans, though it helps. Houston is 0-7 against teams not named the Jacksonville Jaguars this season, and none of those losses have been by less than a touchdown. New England is playing better football as of late, including a six-point win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football last week.
We have The Hoodie going up against his former assistant in Romeo Crennel, and all he needs is a field goal. This feels like a sucker line, what I try my hardest to avoid, but give me the damn lollipop, I’m rolling with the Pats.
Dolphins -3.5 vs Broncos
No one in the NFL is better at covering spreads in 2020 than the Miami Dolphins, as they are tied with the Steelers at 7-2 ATS. They are winners straight-up of five in-a-row, beating the likes of the Chargers, Cardinals, Rams, Jets, and 49ers. Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost three of four, including 27-point drubbing by the Chiefs, a seven-point loss to the Falcons, and a 25-point defeat to the red hot Raiders a week ago.
My dumdum brain almost got the best of me this week, thinking about altitude and medical marijuana dispensaries, but my genius brain prevailed. Give me the aquatic mammals and let’s lay the 3.5. Tua and the Dolphins roll in Denver.
Florida -31.5 at Vanderbilt
Noon kickoffs with massive spreads scare the shit out of me. We’re talking, “we need to talk” texts from your wife after you went out drinking kind of scared. What relaxes me a bit is the fact that Florida is very good and Vanderbilt is very bad. That’s the analysis you’ll find here and nowhere else.
The Gators are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, and have won all five of their games by double-digit margins, scoring at least 38 points in all six games. The Commodores on the other end are 0-6 with identical 41-7 losses to LSU(!) and South Carolina (!!), and a 54-21 loss to Ole Miss under their belt. Florida head coach Dan Mullen would love to get quarterback Kyle Trask further into the Heisman conversation, and the No. 6 Gators some style points. Look for a beatdown in the Music City.
WHAMMY: Coastal Carolina -5.5 vs. Appalachian State
After my beloved covering darlings, the Arkansas Razorbacks, got demolished on Saturday by the aforementioned Gators, I now only have one covernaut (covering juggernaut) to my name: the Chanticleers. The Coastal Carolina Fancy Birds are 5-1-1 ATS this year and are coming off a week off due to postponement. On the other side of the coin, the Mountaineers, despite a hearty 6-1 SU record, are 1-6 ATS.
App State is fresh off a 17-13 home squeaker over the Georgia State Fighting Turner Fields, a team whom the Fancy Birds smoked 51-0 in Atlanta last month. This is Coastal’s second-largest remaining game left on their board behind a December date with Hugh Freeze and Liberty. Expect Jamey Chadwell to come out humming and to win this by at least a touchdown. Death. Taxes. Lena Dunham bothering you. Chanticleers covering. Book it.